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06/02/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Serving as manager of a national team is a pretty thankless job, especially if you are leading one of the premier soccer powers in the world.
Every single game is scrutinized relentlessly, every decision is questioned and if you fail to produce the expected results - which are usually unrealistic - you won't have your job for long.
So when a manager selects his 23-man roster for a World Cup he is already bracing for the backlash of leaving a popular player off the team or failing to take an emerging young star because of a lack of experience.
Some managers simply have an overabundance of talent to choose from and will undoubtedly be wrong no matter who they choose.
With that in mind, here is a list of players who belong on their respective rosters. Let the second-guessing begin.
RONALDINHO AND PATO (BRAZIL):
As a player, Brazil manager Dunga was always more substance than style, and it appears that he is applying the same logic to his current squad. Brazil is not as flashy as it once was, but the results have been there. However, by leaving Ronaldinho off the team he is depriving the world of a player who is still capable of producing moments of magic.
He is not quite the same player who captured two consecutive FIFA World Player of the Year awards, but after a solid season at AC Milan the 30-year-old Ronaldinho belongs in the midfield alongside former teammate Kaka.
Without Ronaldinho, Kaka will likely share the middle of the field with Elano, a good player on set pieces who works hard but can't match the pure ability of the man who has owned the number 10 shirt in recent years.
Having played in two World Cups during his career, it is possible that this Brazilian magician has graced the world's stage for the final time as he will be 34 when the tournament is next played in his home country in 2014.
Pato will no doubt find his way into the World Cup team in future years, but the 20-year-old striker is missing out on a valuable experience that can only help him down the line.
He netted 12 goals in 23 games for Milan this past season, and while fellow strikers Luis Fabiano, Robinho and Nilmar are certainly deserving of their place, Pato surely could have taken the spot of 31-year-old Grafite, who has made just a few appearances for Brazil.
JAVIER ZANETTI AND ESTEBAN CAMBIASSO (ARGENTINA):
It is hard to question what Diego Maradona did on the field as Argentina's greatest-ever player, but by leaving this duo off his World Cup team, he has opened himself up for some second-guessing in his manager's role.
Argentina is blessed with an abundance of attacking talent, but their biggest question mark is in defense, where both Zanetti and Cambiasso would have provided a big lift.
Both players were instrumental in helping Inter Milan to a historic treble this past season, and both bring a wealth of experience to a team that is relatively young in certain areas.
Zanetti is Argentina's most-capped player of all time and would have provided stability to a shaky back line, while Cambiasso could have paired with captain Javier Mascherano in midfield to provide cover on an offense- heavy squad.
FRANCESCO TOTTI (ITALY):
After announcing his retirement from the international game in 2007 Totti had a change of heart about a year later and made himself available to manager Marcello Lippi for national team selection.
However, Lippi has remained loyal to the strikers who helped navigate Italy through the qualification process, players like Alberto Gilardino, Antonio Di Natale and Vincenzo Iaquinta.
All three are good players, but none has the experience of Totti, who has played in two World Cups and made 58 appearances for the Azzurri.
He has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, but after a season that saw him net 14 goals in 23 games for a Roma side that finished second in Serie A, Totti's presence would make a relatively tame Italy attack look a little more threatening.
KARIM BENZEMA (FRANCE):
Following his big-money transfer to Real Madrid from Lyon, Benzema struggled to find regular playing time during a frustrating first season at the Bernabeu.
He started 14 games and made 13 substitute appearances while scoring eight times, but more was expected of one of the hottest young properties in Europe.
France has good options at striker in Nicolas Anelka and the experienced Thierry Henry, but the 22-year-old Benzema could certainly have found his way onto the team ahead of the enigmatic Djibril Cisse.
Cisse has barely been in the national team picture in the past few years, but after a big season in Greece with Panathinaikos, manager Raymond Domenech has decided to bring him back into the fold.
Benzema failed to impress during a disappointing Euro 2008 tournament as a 20- year-old, but instead of taking a player like Cisse who is often injured and inconsistent, Benzema would have been a nice option off the bench while gaining valuable experience.
THEO WALCOTT (ENGLAND):
It is difficult to come down too hard on England manager Fabio Capello for leaving the Arsenal youngster off his team because there are so many good options at Walcott's position.
Joe Cole, Aaron Lennon, James Milner and Shaun Wright-Phillips each have a good case for inclusion, but Walcott would have given Capello a player with blistering pace out wide who has shown an ability to score goals.
Walcott received a surprise call-up to England's 2006 World Cup team as a 17- year-old under former manager Steve McClaren, although injuries and a lack of consistent playing time at Arsenal hurt his chances of making this year's squad.
He scored a stunning hat trick against Croatia in World Cup qualifying, but two subpar performances in recent friendlies appear to have persuaded Capello to pass on the speedy winger.
BENNI McCARTHY (SOUTH AFRICA):
There is no denying the fact that McCarthy is well past his prime, but after all he has done for South Africa over the years he at least deserves to be on the team with the World Cup being played in his native land.
McCarthy saw limited time at West Ham this past season due to injuries and many have questioned his commitment to South Africa, pointing to the fact that he is out of shape.
But despite his poor form this past year, he is South Africa's all-time leading scorer with 32 goals and deserves one last chance in the national team spotlight.
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In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.
BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
I'm picking way too many road teams this week. Oh well. New Orleans has had some time to reflect on its lackluster showing in the opener, and the Buccanneers just aren't a very good football team. Anyone else surprised Tampa Bay hasn't made a move to sign Byron Leftwich? I thought that's what they do.
VIKINGS (+3) at Lions SPORTS BETTING LINES
Run the ball and stop the run. Minnesota can do both, and that will keep them in a lot of games this season. Even though it was only one week, Adrian Peterson looks like he was a steal at No. 7 in last year's draft. Not only will he produce, but Peterson delivers excitement to what otherwise would be one of the league's most boring teams.
DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
Lost in the Tony Romo lovefest is just how bad the Cowboys' defense was last week. I know they're banged up, but Dallas' 'D' allowed 438 yards to the Giants' offense, and backup running back Derrick Ward averaged 6.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Cam Cameron's decision to split carries between Ronnie Brown and Jesse Chatman sounds about as can't-miss as Larry David's plan to show up to Marty Funkhouser's party a night late. Still, gotta go with Miami to cover at home.
SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
I'm probably missing something, but this game seems too easy. Arizona blew Monday night's game against the 49ers in typical Cardinals fashion, and the Seahawks beat Tampa Bay by two touchdowns. Love Seattle in this one.
BRONCOS (-9.5) vs. Raiders SPORTS BETTING LINES
Special teams was a major story line in Week 1. Take a look at the Broncos. They had to rush on to the field to get a Jason Elam field goal as time expired against the Bills. Denver drove into Buffalo territory on eight of 10 drives but came away with just a pair of field goals and a touchdown. Look for more scoring from the Broncos this week against an Oakland defense that gave up 36 points to Detroit in Week 1.
BEARS (-12) vs. Chiefs SPORTS BETTING LINES
Everyone talks about Rex Grossman when dissecting the Bears' offense, but Chicago's quarterback got no help in last week's loss to the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City confirmed what we all thought while watching Hard Knocks: The Chiefs are going to stink this year. It could be a rough first month for Larry Johnson fantasy owners. Kansas City's RB was limited to 43 yards on 10 carries in Week 1, and the Chiefs face the Bears, Vikings and Chargers the next three weeks, all formidable run defenses.
RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
A big dose of Willis McGahee and a usual sound defensive effort will give the Ravens their first win. According to Football Outsiders, no team in the NFL rushed only three defenders on pass plays last year more than the Jets. And according to my special Jets correspondent Ben Stauber, New York did the same in Week 1. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens should have all day to throw.
PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Chargers
Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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