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07/28/2010 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Danny Valencia knocked in three and collected four more hits while Carl Pavano turned in his eighth consecutive winning decision in an 11-2 Twins victory over Kansas City.
Valencia was coming off a 4-for-4 performance in Monday's 19-1 shellacking of the Royals and is 8-for-9 in the series. Joe Mauer, who was 5-for-5 with a career-high seven RBI on Monday, drove in another two runs with two hits in the middle test to this three-game set.
J.J. Hardy hit a solo home run and added a run-scoring single amid a three-hit game and Michael Cuddyer added three hits and two RBI to the win, Minnesota's fourth straight and sixth in the last seven games.
The Twins have racked up 47 runs and 72 hits over their current four-game torrent and reached double-digit runs for the third straight game. Over the last seven games, Minnesota has outscored the competition 60-12.
Pavano (13-6), meanwhile, reached 98 pitches in five innings, but held the Royals to five hits and a run over that time to stretch an unbeaten streak to 10 starts dating back to June 9. The Twins have gone 9-1 in those games.
Bruce Chen (5-5) was knocked around for 11 hits and six runs in 5 1/3 innings to take the loss, Kansas City's fifth in six games. Scott Podsednik had two hits and drove in a run, extending his hitting streak to 14 games.
Minnesota paced itself in the early going with a mere four runs in the first three innings. Cuddyer chased home Mauer with a two-out single and Valencia did the same to score Delmon Young in the game's first frame.
Valencia and Hardy had back-to-back RBI singles with one out in the third for a 4-0 margin. Jose Guillen interrupted the visitors' scoring with a sacrifice fly in the fifth, but the Twins were right back at it in their next at-bat. Jason Repko singled in Drew Butera and Mauer added a sac fly in the sixth after Kyle Farnsworth took over for Chen.
Podsednik knocked in Alex Gordon with a two-out hit in the bottom half, but Hardy blasted a home run off Robinson Tejeda in the seventh to erase the run and make it 7-2.
Minnesota tacked on four more in the eighth as Mauer, Young, Cuddyer and Valencia strung together consecutive two-out RBI hits off Victor Marte.
Game Notes
The Twins had 19 hits Tuesday a night after tying their season high with 20. Young had two hits and scored three runs...Minnesota improved to 9-3 since the All-Star break...Pavano walked three and struck out two. He had pitched into the seventh inning in each of his previous 12 trips to the mound. The veteran right-hander has also won five straight decisions on the road, where he's compiled a 7-3 record in 11 starts thus far in 2010. It was Pavano's fourth overall matchup with the Royals this season, as he improved to 3-1 in 2010 and 7-5 in 13 lifetime games (12 starts) against them...The Twins have won eight of 10 versus the Royals this year, as well as 16 of the last 20 overall meetings between the teams. Minnesota is also 18-5 at Kauffman Stadium since the start of the 2008 season.
<< Pirates extend Rockies' slide in series opener
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Neil Walker finished 3-for-4 with a solo home
run as Pittsburgh continued Colorado's second-half slide with a 4-2 victory at
Coors Field.
Zach Duke (5-9) started the three-game set with six solid innings,
<< Haren likely to make next start after X-rays come back clean
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Haren is expected to start on Saturday
when the Angels take on the American League West-leading Rangers after X-rays
of his right forearm came back clean on Tuesday.
Haren, acquired by Los Angeles
<< Memphis rookie Vasquez has ankle surgery
Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Memphis Grizzlies rookie guard Greivis Vasquez
underwent surgery on his right ankle Tuesday to remove a bone spur.
Vasquez, who starred at the University of Maryland, had the procedure
performed in B
<< Lee fans 13, Cruz hits game-winning HR in 10th as Rangers down A's
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cliff Lee set a career high with 13
strikeouts over nine brilliant innings and Nelson Cruz belted a two-run, game-
winning home run in the bottom of the 10th, as the Texas Rangers edged the
Oakland
Bay out of Mets lineup >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Bay is experiencing concussion-like
symptoms several days after crashing into the outfield wall while making a
catch against the Dodgers and was not in the Mets' lineup against St. Louis on
Tuesday
Billingsley, Ethier lead Dodgers over Padres >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chad Billingsley pitched six shutout frames,
and his pinch-hitter, Andre Ethier, came through with a big hit in the top of
the seventh, as the Dodgers kicked off an important NL West three-game set
with a
Uribe, Renteria homer in eighth as Giants nip Marlins >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juan Uribe led off the bottom of the
eighth inning with a tie-breaking homer off Brian Sanches and Edgar Renteria
added a two-run shot later in the frame, lifting the San Francisco Giants to a
6-4 win
Lackey beat old team as Red Sox use late surge >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - John Lackey returned to his former stomping
grounds and pitched 7 1/3 quality innings to lead the Boston Red Sox to a 4-2
win over the Angels in the middle installment of a three-game series.
Lackey (10-5
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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